tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post4401241613032241111..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: The Electoral College Map (10/16/08)Josh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-5870063676349833152008-10-16T23:04:00.000-04:002008-10-16T23:04:00.000-04:00Sure, no problem.Sure, no problem.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-52908517126062104172008-10-16T21:53:00.000-04:002008-10-16T21:53:00.000-04:00Alright, thanks for the explanation.Alright, thanks for the explanation.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-84839003788280782752008-10-16T21:30:00.000-04:002008-10-16T21:30:00.000-04:00It isn't a technical term. As I said, I'm using i...It isn't a technical term. As I said, I'm using it to mean a gap in between certain states in the rankings on the Spectrum. But the gap provides a nice break between categories.<BR/><BR/>We have a range then of choices as to where to drop the line. I'm certainly open to suggestions, but the averages are pointing us to where there may be a line of differentiation between certain states. To me, seven seems good. <BR/><BR/>Scott's point is certainly a valid one, though. Why follow the gap when it may not be there in two weeks? My answer is that I don't think there will be any states outside of those that would be on the Watch List that move or threaten to move beyond that point. Certainly, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin seem like states that are on the verge of moving out of McCain's grasp. Montana offers a similar example on the other side of the partisan line.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-76476016750560199392008-10-16T21:15:00.000-04:002008-10-16T21:15:00.000-04:00Pardon my ignorance, but what is a "natural break"...Pardon my ignorance, but what is a "natural break"? I've never heard that term before.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-81533142364806630952008-10-16T20:32:00.000-04:002008-10-16T20:32:00.000-04:00Scott,Natural break may be a bit of a misnomer in ...Scott,<BR/>Natural break may be a bit of a misnomer in this case. It is more of a gap. There aren't that many states right now between 7 and 9 points. All those current lean states, then are packed between 4 and 6 points with one exception: Minnesota. My inclination is to drop that strong/lean line to seven. That will likely hold up pretty well for the remaining two and a half weeks. <BR/><BR/>Montana would be on the Watch List on the red side of the partisan line and New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would be there on the blue side. Each would be there on the verge of switching from lean to strong. Minnesota would be close to a strong to lean change.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-29206389865271738932008-10-16T19:38:00.001-04:002008-10-16T19:38:00.001-04:00Why put the strong/lean line at "a natural break"?...Why put the strong/lean line at "a natural break"? Anywhere that's a natural break now won't necessarily be one two weeks from now.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-83727770368315646002008-10-16T19:38:00.000-04:002008-10-16T19:38:00.000-04:00Jack,I don't disagree with you, but my gut is tell...Jack,<BR/>I don't disagree with you, but my gut is telling me one thing about Virginia and I suppose I'm glad that the numbers here back me up on it. There is some validity to this rising ships sort of analogy. If it is a state that isn't anchored down by an overwhelming number of conservatives then there should be some uniform gain in all other states when the waters rise. We've certainly seen evidence of that sort of phenomenon in Virginia and elsewhere. The difference is that our measure kept Virginia in the toss up category (but favoring McCain) for so long, that and the overall competitiveness of the state until recently kept the Old Dominion grounded enough to only allow for a move to an Obama toss up when the water began to rise. <BR/><BR/>As to why Sabato left Virginia where it was I have no idea. There is no indication of the methodology there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-3440544435519646452008-10-16T15:38:00.001-04:002008-10-16T15:38:00.001-04:00I know that I, 20-year-old college student, have n...I know that I, 20-year-old college student, have no right to question Larry Sabato (or Josh Putnam, for that matter), but I completely and respectfully disagree with both of you about Virginia. The election is leaning towards Obama by about eight points. If several months ago, when the election was closer, VA was a tossup state, then why shouldn't it be at least "Leans Democratic" now?Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-58956790920074458252008-10-16T13:28:00.000-04:002008-10-16T13:28:00.000-04:00Here's that Crystal Ball link from Anon12:31.Here ...<A HREF="http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008101604" REL="nofollow">Here's that Crystal Ball link from Anon12:31</A>.<BR/><BR/>Here is that note on Virginia from Sabato:<BR/><I>"One note about Virginia: We have preserved its toss-up status despite a series of polls showing Obama winning by double digits (such as yesterday's CNN-Opinion Research Corporation survey, with Obama at 53% and McCain at 43%). It's not that we think the polls are necessarily wrong. In fact, the Crystal Ball was the very first analyst website to call Virginia a toss up last spring, at a time when the McCain campaign denounced the very notion, and listed the state as "Solid Republican". Still, we have covered Virginia closely for almost forty years. We have yet to talk to a single experienced political observer in Virginia who believes that the state isn't relatively close. Almost all say, if Obama wins Virginia, it will be by two or three points--certainly not ten. So while Obama probably leads in Virginia today, as he does in almost all our remaining toss-ups, we're going to hold off tilting the state for now. This represents an abundance of caution, perhaps, but wise from our perspective. There is plenty of time to color in the whole map before Election Day."</I><BR/><BR/>I have approximately 40 years less experience covering Virginia politics, but that is my general sense of the state of play in the Old Dominion as well. Even when the lean/toss up line gets dropped, Virginia will not be on the Watch List (...for a switch to Obama lean). It is properly classified here with no caveats.<BR/><BR/>Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go take a couple of deep breaths and let my head deflate some.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-60546616242682040722008-10-16T12:31:00.000-04:002008-10-16T12:31:00.000-04:00Larry Sabato from Virginia has an updated map.http...Larry Sabato from Virginia has an updated map.<BR/><BR/>http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2008101604<BR/><BR/>I agree with his map except I would have Missouri and North Carolina leaning McCain.<BR/>The 2 pure toss up states to me are Ohio and Virginia.<BR/>Nevada and Colorado to me are definitely in the bag for Obama and Florida is going that way.<BR/>But with Nevada and Colorado in the bag, it means game over, Florida, Ohio, Virginia are irrelevant.<BR/><BR/>By the way at the bottom of his column he explains why he has Virginia as toss up despite polls showing Obama ahead.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-24082911264893023532008-10-16T12:20:00.000-04:002008-10-16T12:20:00.000-04:00Rob,It was Scott.Rob,<BR/><A HREF="http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2008/10/electoral-college-map-101408.html?showComment=1224044760000#c1699851892528436496" REL="nofollow">It was Scott</A>.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-64925877604017275892008-10-16T11:53:00.000-04:002008-10-16T11:53:00.000-04:00I can't find it now, but someone (Maybe Scott) cla...I can't find it now, but someone (Maybe Scott) claimed that the big chance for a gamechanger was not last night but on Letterman tonight. The pressure is on McCain.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03379192575044761972noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-52665538923387239212008-10-16T00:17:00.000-04:002008-10-16T00:17:00.000-04:00Good catch. Thanks. Fix coming.Good catch. Thanks. Fix coming.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-20930678953071193812008-10-16T00:15:00.000-04:002008-10-16T00:15:00.000-04:00The Watch List is a little messed up (Florida, for...The Watch List is a little messed up (Florida, for instance, appears to have a few chads hanging). I assume you'll fix it in the morning.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14690577323454357276noreply@blogger.com