tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post3774950256255327124..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Bill Introduced in Texas House to Move 2012 Presidential Primary from March to FebruaryJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-72178496310901363452010-11-24T20:10:31.286-05:002010-11-24T20:10:31.286-05:00@Anon1102
It is instructive to note that the GOP w...@Anon1102<br />It is instructive to note that the GOP will likely be the only party with a competitive nomination race in 2012. As such, yes, with 2008 as a guide the RNC will follow through with enforcement of its rules by penalizing states in violation half their delegations. Each state holding a contest prior to February 5, 2008 lost half of their delegates on the Republican side. Only Iowa and Nevada skirted that penalty. Both did not allocate delegates in the first step of their caucus processes.<br /><br />The combination of the penalties and the lack of winner-take-all contests prior to February and March respectively may have the effect of prolonging the contest. May. Much will depend on the delegate cushion any leading candidate holds through those early contests. And we'll have to wait on the calendar and specific set of candidates before speculating on this in any educated fashion. I definitely think the GOP had the 2008 Democratic competition/grassroots wins during the primaries as motivation for the changes the RNC adopted. But it really does tread a very fine line. If what happens is a divisive split between the establishment of the party and the Tea Party, then the resulting tension is only going to hurt the Republicans. Now, it could be that both factions come together the way the Obama-Clinton rift was healed in 2008. That, however, is a big if.<br /><br />@Anon724<br />Institutionally, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina can wait it out as long as they want. New Hampshire settled on a date for 2008 just before Thanksgiving in 2007 and that was after the the Iowa GOP settled on January 3 in mid-October and the Iowa Democrats followed suit at the end of the month. South Carolina's Republicans settled on their January 19, 2008 date in August 2007. The Democrats were scheduled for January 29, the same day Florida moved and also occupied and got a waiver from the DNC around the same time of the GOP move but to hold their contest on January 26.<br /><br />The point is that these states can hold out as long as it takes to ensure their positions. I used the word institutional before. In New Hampshire, the primary date is decided upon by the secretary of state. That allows much more freedom than having to filter the decision through both the legislative and executive branches to get the date moved as is the case in most other primary states. In South Carolina and Iowa, the state parties make the decisions on the date of the delegate selection event. Again, the partisanship that may exist in a state legislature or between it and the governor doesn't within a state political party. <br /><br />The other primary states will start falling in line throughout the late winter and into spring as their legislatures are in session. I'll have more on that issue up soon.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-45985620931317167182010-11-24T19:24:15.513-05:002010-11-24T19:24:15.513-05:00Any sense of when the traditional early states are...Any sense of when the traditional early states are likely to pass bills moving their primaries up before Florida?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-65238449254798229382010-11-23T11:02:45.450-05:002010-11-23T11:02:45.450-05:00You could have a stampede earlier. Would the part...You could have a stampede earlier. Would the party really halve the delegates of the majority of states? I assume yes and the result is likely to be a longer primary with the late winner-take-all states actually elevated in importance. In a way, I think the devised plan could not brake the race to be early but at least spread out the attention to later primary states which actually ended up being good for 2008 Democrats; see Obama's razor thin general election wins in May primary states Indiana and North Carolina. While a long race will jam Romney's easy path via hitting jackpot in California and New York, his deep coffers will prepare him for a long race and if it's against Palin, leave her more time to wipe out. The only real primary threat to him is Palin passing- doesn't seem her temperament- and throwing her heat behind a Pawlenty (I'm skeptical anyone from Pence, Christie, DeMint or Perry will get in.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com