tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post2407710701431724531..comments2024-03-26T05:22:08.256-04:00Comments on Frontloading HQ: Election Day 2009: What's on Tap? -- A Viewing GuideJosh Putnamhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06301836432446874997noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-39618315794451103782009-11-03T14:06:37.443-05:002009-11-03T14:06:37.443-05:00I suspect Virginia may go early, but New Jersey an...I suspect Virginia may go early, but New Jersey and the Maine vote will likely go on into the night. I'm absolutely unwilling to say anything about NY-23. It could be called early. It could stretch out for a month a la <a href="http://frontloading.blogspot.com/2009/04/76914-76817-tedisco-leads-in-ny-20.html" rel="nofollow">NY-20</a>. There is no way of knowing. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY.<br /><br />So, you may miss out on the poll closings, but there will be returns to watch. <br /><br />Thanks for the link. Good stuff about the last Democratic come-from-behind win in New Jersey gubernatorial race.Josh Putnamhttp://frontloading.blogspot.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6719252574677567989.post-63687492487104649252009-11-03T11:50:37.648-05:002009-11-03T11:50:37.648-05:00Unfortunately, I have a class tonight that will pr...Unfortunately, I have a class tonight that will prevent me from watching election returns. You'd think that my political science professor (who is originally from New Jersey) would let us out early, no?<br /><br />Since we've been discussing Ray Bateman a bit this year, I figured I'd post this from <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/25/magazine/25corzine-t.html?_r=1&pagewanted=1" rel="nofollow">a recent NY Times Magazine article</a>:<br /><br />"New Jersety Republicans with long memories, some of whom now advise Chris Christie, are haunted by a political obscurity known as the Bateman-Simon tax plan. The story goes like this: in 1977, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, Raymond Bateman, had a big lead in the polls over the incumbent governor, the Democrat Brendan Byrne, who had just signed the income tax into law. Rather than simply rail against Byrne’s apostasy, Bateman and his economic adviser, the former treasury secretary William Simon, came up with a detailed proposal to eliminate the income tax — while also raising the sales tax to stave off any shortfall. The Bateman-Simon plan was immediately torn apart by Democrats and the news media (critics called it the BS plan for short), Bateman’s double-digit lead evaporated almost overnight and Byrne won re-election. The lesson Republicans took away from that encounter is that campaigning against taxes is a winning tactic, as long as you don’t pull a Ray Bateman and suddenly decide to tell people how you actually intend to pay for the things they want."<br /><br />The article then describes how Christie has avoided this mistake, promising tax cuts that are impractical at best, and then stated that voters don't expect politicians to keep campaign promises.Jackhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04365194237710177589noreply@blogger.com